Ever since Independence, industries have been the temples of modern India. And now, with a fast-growing services sector, policymakers have focused on strengthening human capital, with investments in basic services such as health and education. When it comes to public infrastructure, they have also predominantly supported urban development.
We never imagined that rural India would endure as the country developed in the decades post-Independence. Policy efforts focused on villages were largely about ameliorating local conditions, such as lack of food or wages. With India’s urban population increasing, as well as the recent migrant crisis we have all witnessed due to the lockdown, one thing has become certain: The dream of urban opportunity has been dented. With this, social networks that brought migrant workers to cities have also been disrupted.
At this point, we do not know how long we will need to wait to contain COVID-19. We are looking at a ‘new normal’ shaping up, and being internalised by people who will learn to adapt to new processes of work and life. We are going to have restrictions on travel, hospitality, and entertainment; and on how society celebrates festivals, weddings, and so on. People will continue to be scared of transmission long after the lockdown ends. And with the economic crisis we are now facing, people will also be likely to hoard money. There will be more job losses too, as recent numbers from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) suggest. Overall, this is going to lead to a contraction on the demand side. While the Indian economy was facing a severe demand contraction prior to the pandemic anyway, the lockdown and the crisis have accentuated it.
As we have all seen in the news recently, migrant workers have been making their way back to their villages, many on foot; and most of those who are stranded or are still in the cities want to return home and be with their families. Given the trauma of this experience, many migrant workers may not want to return to cities, at least not in near-term, and some even when the situation normalises. “Bas, abhi wapas nahin jayenge,” they are saying (“Enough, now we’re not going to go back”). Most estimates indicate about 20 percent would stay back. This reverse migration, coupled with people no longer willing to move out of villages, will have a number of impacts on the rural economy and way of life.